ESG regulation

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Confession: writing this in May 2025, we cannot predict with confidence what the rest of 2025 will bring. The year has already seen four months of change and upheaval – political, regulatory, and economic. The new US administration has touted a business-friendly regulatory environment, with actual and promised tax cuts and deregulation. However, geopolitical tensions, tariff trade wars and political instability have introduced new risks and created a climate of extreme unpredictability. We should expect 2025 to hold several surprises still, whether that is a breakout of peace or new political themes obtaining prominence in one or more jurisdictions.

To understand the litigation and regulatory risks that are coming in 2024 for private capital, it is helpful to look back briefly on recent events. Arguably, the single most important event over the last 18 months was the rapid increase in interest rates by the central banks in the United States, England, and Europe. From March 2022 to August 2023, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates at the fastest clip in more than 40 years, to break inflation that had reached the highest levels since the 1970s.

Go to any private equity event in the last 12 months, and “energy transition” will have been discussed, meaning the shift in energy production away from fossil‑based systems to low or zero carbon ones. As fund managers continue to raise funds focused on investments in this sector, we see no reason for this trend to change in 2023.

The ever-increasing web of ESG regulation is of course highly relevant for such funds and their investments, but the sector-relevant risks are much wider. There are four risks of which fund managers need to be aware.