As has been widely reported, digital infrastructure has become one of the fastest growing investment structures in recent years, most recently driven by the explosion in demand from firms in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. This in turn has led to unprecedented needs for capex spending for the construction, expansion and upgrading of data centers, cell towers and networks, fiber optics and other data transmission facilities and power production and transmission.
If we had to define the mood for 2026 in three words, we would choose alert, intentional and institutional. After several years of normalizing longer hold periods and navigating evolving regulatory frameworks, 2026 will see managers permanently vigilant – vigilant in pursuing value creation theses, identifying exit opportunities and embedding robust governance structures to mitigate litigation and regulatory risks.
Big fund-raising rounds and high valuations have some wondering whether the AI sector is in a bubble in the nature of the dotcom boom. As of this writing, OpenAI is valued at over $80 billion; Amazon added another $2.75 billion to its investment in Anthropic; and even some very early-stage startups, like France-based Mistral AI, have racked up hundreds of millions in venture-capital funding at valuations over a billion dollars. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichar has said AI could be more profound than the invention of electricity or the discovery of fire. Is the hype real?
2023’s excitement for generative artificial intelligence (AI) prompted the SEC to respond on multiple fronts – stump speeches, rulemaking, new exam priorities and sweeps and previewing potential enforcement actions. SEC Chair Gary Gensler raised concerns regarding potential conflicts and investor harm resulting from the proliferation of AI and warned that an AI-caused financial crisis is nearly unavoidable absent regulation. The SEC adopted a number of initiatives in 2023 to respond to these perceived risks.
To understand the litigation and regulatory risks that are coming in 2024 for private capital, it is helpful to look back briefly on recent events. Arguably, the single most important event over the last 18 months was the rapid increase in interest rates by the central banks in the United States, England, and Europe. From March 2022 to August 2023, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates at the fastest clip in more than 40 years, to break inflation that had reached the highest levels since the 1970s.