In addition to the normal operational and legal risks associated with owning and managing portfolio companies, 2025 has introduced or exacerbated a wave of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks such as inflation, tariffs, trade, depressed consumer sentiment, political risks, and credit risks. The resulting, increased risks faced by portfolio companies has caused a need for private equity sponsors to focus more closely on the insurance maintained at the portfolio company level, and not only the sponsor’s own policies. It is critical for sponsors to work closely with management of their portfolio companies, insurance brokers, and experienced coverage counsel to review and negotiate strong insurance for their portfolio companies. Savvy sponsors are able to utilize their leverage to negotiate bespoke, manuscript policy forms that can be used across their portfolio to provide consistent, strong protection for each of the sponsor’s portfolio companies.

Times of economic volatility often increase disparities between a seller’s valuation and the buyer’s valuation of the same company. Earn-out provisions are one tool frequently used to address such disparities. An earn-out provision requires the buyer to make one or more post-closing payments (the “earn-out consideration”) to the seller if the company being sold (the “earn-out entity”) meets certain milestones during a defined post-closing period (the “earn-out period,” which is usually between one to five years). These milestones may include EBITDA, gross revenue, net income, the expansion of the business into defined geographic or product areas, or other metrics.

With Paul Atkins as the new SEC Chair, the agency’s priorities have shifted away from many of the aggressive policies of former Chair Gensler. The first four months of the Republican controlled SEC saw a dramatic shift in the approach to crypto with the dismissal or pause of major litigation, the termination of several longstanding investigations, the recission of accounting guidance regarding the safeguarding of crypto assets and the establishment of a new task force to help formulate the regulatory approach to crypto going forward. With the enforcement program under a new SEC undergoing significant changes, there will likely be a return to more traditional enforcement cases with greater emphasis on egregious conduct involving pecuniary gain or investor harm, moving away from “pushing the envelope” cases. Enforcement sweeps involving off-channel communications, late filings and other “broken windows” initiatives are expected to fall by the wayside. Regulation by enforcement could be replaced by increased interaction with the Staff, formal or informal guidance or lighter-touch rulemaking.

Confession: writing this in May 2025, we cannot predict with confidence what the rest of 2025 will bring. The year has already seen four months of change and upheaval – political, regulatory, and economic. The new US administration has touted a business-friendly regulatory environment, with actual and promised tax cuts and deregulation. However, geopolitical tensions, tariff trade wars and political instability have introduced new risks and created a climate of extreme unpredictability. We should expect 2025 to hold several surprises still, whether that is a breakout of peace or new political themes obtaining prominence in one or more jurisdictions.

Adviser-led secondary transactions have seen explosive growth over the last five years.  That growth has brought increased regulatory concerns over the conflicts of interests inherent in these transactions and a perceived lack of transparency into this market.  New SEC rules adopted in 2023 will arm regulators with additional tools to identify, exam and investigate market practices.  It is therefore critical for managers running an adviser-led secondary transaction to not only comply with the new rules as they become effective but to structure any such transaction with the SEC’s concerns in mind. 

Economic headwinds and the interest rate environment that developed over the course of 2023 increased financial stress on portfolio companies and portend heightened litigation risk in 2024 for portfolio companies and their private fund sponsors. Specifically, interest rate increases that accelerated through 2022 continued in 2023, and compounded existing economic stressors including tight liquidity and inflation coming out of 2020 and 2021, as well as increased cost and other burdens related to ESG and regulatory compliance. These pressures put portfolio companies in often unsustainable financial positions, causing them to prematurely seek liquidity events, violate debt covenants with lenders, and resort to bankruptcy, all of which has led to an increase in disputes and litigation, which we expect to continue in 2024.

In a wave of SEC rulemaking this past year, representing a “new world order” event akin to Dodd-Frank, the SEC has provided itself with a fresh set of tools to increase regulatory and enforcement scrutiny on private funds. Among other things, certain of the rules could result in fundamental changes to market practices and greater disclosure to LPs. While ongoing litigation will determine the fates of the Private Fund Adviser Rules, the Short Sale Disclosure Rule, and the Securities Lending Rule, and while other rules are awaiting final adoption, the SEC concerns underlying the rulemaking will continue regardless.   

To understand the litigation and regulatory risks that are coming in 2024 for private capital, it is helpful to look back briefly on recent events. Arguably, the single most important event over the last 18 months was the rapid increase in interest rates by the central banks in the United States, England, and Europe. From March 2022 to August 2023, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates at the fastest clip in more than 40 years, to break inflation that had reached the highest levels since the 1970s.

On November 4, 2022, compliance with amended Rule 206(4)-1 (the “Marketing Rule”) became mandatory for all investment advisers registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”).[1] Seven months since the compliance date, SEC-registered investment advisers continue to discover and adapt to challenges in applying the Marketing Rule. Newly formed advisers also face significant obstacles to marketing with a predecessor-firm track record. It has also impacted advisers’ interaction with placement agents and solicitors. And finally, the SEC has begun assessing advisers’ adherence to the rule through routine compliance examinations. All parties involved continue to adapt to the new environment.

As IPOs and other traditional paths to liquidity for private assets have become more challenging, GP-led secondary transactions have emerged as a powerful and popular tool across closed-end private funds, leading to explosive growth over the last five years. And while macro factors influence their prevalence year over year, these transactions remain broadly popular across the various stakeholders in these transactions, facilitating different goals for different parties: 

  • Existing Investors (LPs):  Near-term liquidity in a liquidity-constrained market, typically with an option to continue participation if desired
  • New Investors (Buyers):  Access to a mature portfolio with unrealized upside
  • Fund Adviser (GP):  Extended duration to capture future upside of well-performing assets, additional capital to support existing portfolio, and reset economics aligning with longer-term outlook